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We’ve been closely watching the Crypto Currency Market if you can call it that, with all the fake data, fraud, and related problems. One thing stands out – it’s not so different than FX, commodities, futures, or stocks. Market dynamics are market dynamics. And as most readers of this fine site will already know – the majority of traders lose. There’s been analysis done on this, we all know how this ends. A few early investors make a bundle and thousands or millions even are left holding the bag. From one perspective, a bubble is much like a ponzi scheme. In MLM, there are a few who get rich – the founders.
Unless you are the founder – how do you know which Crypto is going to be the next Bitcoin? You really don’t. You have no clue. You can go to Korea and do all the due diligence you want, the fact remains that no one can see the future and even a top analyst can be wrong at times.
Quant traders have a similar doctrine they all share – they are smart enough to know how stupid they are. They know their own flaws and they submit to a higher power- that is Artificial Intelligence.
Computing power is now so massive that it is possible that anyone can from their own home office create an intelligent trading system that does well. Of course, as with the laws of market dynamics, it’s also possible to create a robot which is worth exactly zero – a big pile of crap. When a quant makes an algorithm it’s either priceless or worthless. If it works, he has effectively created a money making machine. If it doesn’t work, there isn’t any value to anyone not even academics.
So how do you know what method works, how to build a working bot or buy one? There are obvious conflicts of interest in those who sell bots. The internet has been dominated by good marketeers, while profitable quants mostly keep their strategies to themselves. Selling a product, and trading a robot, are really 2 different skills.
Crypto so far has proven the same as most markets: impossible to trade. Just look at this chart and tell me where you would have entered and exited without the foreknowledge of what is actually going to happen:
While many are kicking themselves for not buying and holding, I can tell you as a trader and I speak for many in the room that there is no way I would have had the patience to sit on a hugely profitable position for 3 years while the price goes parabolic.
That’s why quants develop and trade algorithms – picking entries and exits can prove to be brain-destroying. There are dangers and risks with robots too of course, but they are of a different nature.
This article originally posted at https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-17/taming-market-robots